Investing, methodically.

The mechanics of a position, why the market has an edge, and what it actually takes to beat it.

Returns explained

Decimal, fractional, American — and how to read the implied probability hiding inside every price.

Portfolio management

9 min

Unit sizing, Kelly, and surviving variance. The discipline that separates investors from gamblers.

Expected value

The single number behind every good decision — why +EV wins long-term even when individual positions lose.

Risk & variance

Why even a winning edge swings, what drawdown and risk of ruin really mean, and how to survive both.

Building a portfolio

Treat your positions like an asset: diversification, correlation and position sizing across many positions.

Finding value

Spotting the gap between your probability and the price — devigging, line shopping, and where value hides.

Tracking your edge

CLV, sample size and a journal you'll actually review — how to know whether you're good or just lucky.

The Kelly criterion

How much to allocate: sizing positions for fastest growth, why pros use fractional Kelly, and Kelly across a portfolio.

Line shopping

6 min

The same position, a better price: why taking the best number is free edge — and how to do it without ten tabs open.

The vig & devigging

6 min

The broker's margin, how to strip it out, and why the devigged price is the real benchmark for value.

Arbitrage & hedging

Locking in a guaranteed margin, trading edge for certainty — and the catches behind both.

Glossary

Reference

Every term you'll meet — CLV, vig, steam, middling — defined plainly in one place.