The investor's lexicon.
Every term you need to treat sports markets like an asset class — edge, variance, Kelly, drawdown and the rest, in plain language.
Allocation
The amount of money placed on a single position, often expressed in units.
Alternative asset
Anything outside traditional stocks, bonds and cash. A disciplined sports portfolio behaves like one: skill-driven returns with low correlation to financial markets.
Arbitrage
Backing every outcome across different brokers at prices that lock in a profit regardless of result. Rare, short-lived, and limit-sensitive.
Closing line
The final price a market offers before it closes. It's the sharpest, most efficient number and the benchmark serious investors measure against.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The difference between the price you got and the closing line. Consistent positive CLV is the strongest evidence that your positions carry real edge.
Combined
A single position combining multiple selections; all must win. Higher payout, much lower probability.
Compound growth
Earning returns on your past returns. Reinvesting a steady edge instead of withdrawing it is what turns a small portfolio into a large one over time.
Correlation
How much two positions move together. Positions that rely on the same outcome are secretly one big position; low correlation is what real diversification is made of.
Devig
Removing the broker's margin from returns to estimate the true implied probability of an outcome.
Diversification
Spreading capital across positions that do not move together, so one bad event cannot sink the whole portfolio. It is about correlation, not just the number of positions.
Drawdown
A peak-to-trough fall in your portfolio. Because losses compound, keeping drawdowns shallow is what makes recovery — and long-term growth — possible.
Edge
Your estimated advantage over the offered price — the gap between true probability and implied probability. Positive edge is the whole game.
Expected Value (EV)
The average result of a position if it were repeated many times — the same expected value used in betting and gambling. +EV positions win money over the long run even when individual positions lose.
Exposure
The total capital at risk across all your open positions. Real risk is your combined exposure to each underlying factor, not the size of any single position.
Fractional Kelly
Staking a fixed fraction (often a half or a quarter) of what full Kelly suggests. It trades a little growth for much smaller swings and a lower risk of ruin.
Hedge
Placing an opposing position to lock in profit or cut risk on a position you already hold.
Implied probability
The probability baked into a set of returns. Decimal returns of 2.00 imply 50%; lower returns imply higher probability.
Juice (vig)
The broker's built-in margin — the reason the implied probabilities of a market add up to more than 100%.
Kelly criterion
A staking formula that sizes each position in proportion to your edge and the returns, maximising long-term growth while controlling risk. Most investors use a fraction of full Kelly.
Limit
The maximum allocation a broker will accept on a market or from an account. Sharp action often gets limited quickly.
Line
The current returns, spread, or total a broker is offering on a market.
Liquidity
How much money a market can absorb before the price moves. Thin markets fill small allocations only and limit sharp action quickly.
Live (in-play) trading
Taking a position on a market after the event has started, with returns updating in real time.
Market efficiency
How well a price reflects all available information. The closing line is highly efficient; soft, early or niche markets are where mispricing — and edge — survives longest.
Mean reversion
The tendency of extreme results to drift back toward the long-run average. A hot or cold streak is usually variance, not a new normal — do not overreact to it.
Middling
Trading both sides of a moved line so that a result landing in the gap wins both positions.
Moneyline
A position on which side wins outright, with no spread involved.
Monte Carlo simulation
Running thousands of randomised scenarios to model the range of outcomes for a portfolio or strategy — not a single guess, but a distribution of what could happen.
Opportunity cost
What you give up by tying capital to one position instead of another. Money locked in a low-edge position cannot work in a better one.
Over/Under (totals)
A position on whether the combined score finishes above or below a posted number.
Overround
The sum of a market’s implied probabilities above 100%. It is the broker’s built-in margin — the hurdle your edge must clear before you profit.
Portfolio
The total money you've set aside for trading. Every staking decision should be sized relative to it — never your whole account.
Position sizing
Deciding how much capital to put on a single position. Sizing by a fixed percentage of portfolio protects you in drawdowns and compounds gains in good runs.
Push
A tie against the line — the allocation is returned with no win or loss.
Risk of ruin
The probability of losing your whole portfolio before your edge plays out. It depends on edge, variance and position size — and position size is the lever you control.
Risk-adjusted return
Return measured against the risk taken to earn it. Two strategies with the same profit are not equal if one rode far bigger swings to get there.
ROI
Return on investment — net profit divided by total amount staked, expressed as a percentage.
Spread
A handicap applied to level a market — the favourite must win by more than the number, the underdog can lose by less.
Steam
A rapid, widespread line move as money floods one side across many brokers.
Time horizon
How long you give a strategy to play out. A real edge only shows over a large sample, so a longer horizon is what lets skill separate from luck.
Unit
A standard position size, usually 1–2% of portfolio. Tracking results in units keeps performance comparable as your portfolio changes.
Value position
A position where your estimated probability is higher than the price implies — i.e. a +EV opportunity.
Variance
The natural swing of results around their expected value. Even a winning strategy spends long stretches underwater; variance is the path, edge is the destination.
Volatility
How much your results swing around their average. Higher volatility means deeper drawdowns for the same edge — which is why position sizing matters as much as edge.
Volume
The total amount of money staked on a market or by a broker over a period.
Z-score
How many standard deviations your results sit from random chance. A high Z-score means your edge is statistically significant, not luck.
Know the terms? Now find the edge.
Yoseri computes edge, EV, CLV and Kelly for you — free to start, no card.