Allocate right, grow fast, last long.
The Kelly criterion turns your edge into a allocation size that maximises your portfolio's long-term growth. Yoseri computes it for every position — with a safety cap to keep variance in check.
- Returns2.45
- Est. probability44%
- Edge+6.2%
- Allocation (€5,000 portfolio)€120
Mathematically optimal
Kelly sizes the allocation by your edge: more value, more allocation; no edge, no position.
Variance controlled
Fractional Kelly and a 10% cap: you capture most of the growth while smoothing the swings.
Compounding growth
By staking right every time, you put compound interest to work in your favour, for the long haul.
Compute your optimal allocation.
Enter your returns and your estimated probability (or your edge): the calculator applies the Kelly criterion and returns the fraction of portfolio to allocate. The same engine runs inside Yoseri, automatically, on every one of your signals.
- Full and fractional Kelly (½, ¼)
- Safety cap at 10% of portfolio
- Tuned to each set of returns and each edge
- Applied automatically across all your signals
Guessing your stake vs sizing it with Kelly
- You allocate a round number that just feels right
- You overload a shaky position and blow up variance
- Winners and long shots get the same stake
- Your growth curve lurches all over the place
- Kelly turns your edge into a precise, optimal allocation size
- Fractional Kelly and a 10% cap smooth the swings for you
- More edge means more allocation; no edge means no position
- Consistent sizing lets compounding work steadily in your favour
Kelly staking helps you if…
You stake on feel
Your allocation size changes with your mood. Kelly gives you one consistent rule to follow.
Your variance scares you
The swings keep you up at night. Fractional Kelly and the 10% cap tame them without killing growth.
You're playing the long game
You care about compounding, not one big score. Kelly is built to maximise long-term growth.
Make Kelly staking work harder
Start at half Kelly
Use ½ or ¼ Kelly to cut variance sharply while keeping most of the growth — full Kelly punishes estimation errors.
Be honest about your edge
Kelly is only as good as your probability estimate. Feed it a realistic edge, not an optimistic one.
Respect the 10% cap
Let the safety cap hold even when a position looks certain — no single allocation should ever risk the portfolio.
« I stopped staking on feel. Consistent allocations, sport after sport, and my curve is finally steady. »
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From a real, audited portfolio — updated live. Not marketing numbers.
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