See the future in thousands of scenarios.
Monte Carlo simulation replays your strategy thousands of times to reveal the range of possible outcomes: expected growth, worst cases and risk of ruin. Anticipate instead of enduring.
Thousands of draws
Each simulation replays your strategy under different sequences of results to map what's possible.
Risk of ruin
Know the probability of your portfolio collapsing before you commit — and adjust your allocations accordingly.
Expected growth
Beyond a single forecast, you get a realistic distribution of what could happen.
Stress-test your portfolio.
Enter your portfolio, your edge, your allocation size and a number of positions: the simulator generates thousands of trajectories and shows you the range of outcomes, from best to worst. It's the tool to calibrate your risk before you play.
- Thousands of simulations in one click
- Outcome percentiles (p10 / p50 / p90)
- Risk-of-ruin estimate
- Sensitivity to allocation and edge
Set your inputs and run the simulation.
Sizing on gut feel vs stress-testing first
- You set your allocation size on gut feel and hope
- You only picture the scenario where things go well
- A losing streak takes you completely by surprise
- You don't know if your portfolio can survive variance
- You calibrate it against a modelled risk of ruin
- You see p10, p50 and p90 — best case to worst
- Thousands of draws show you those streaks in advance
- You stress-test it before a single euro is at stake
Monte Carlo helps you if…
You're scaling up
You want to raise your allocation size, but safely. The simulator shows what a bigger allocation does to your risk of ruin.
You're in a downswing
You need to know if a rough patch is normal variance or a real problem. The range of outcomes puts it in perspective.
You're risk-averse
You sleep better knowing the worst case in advance instead of discovering it live on your portfolio.
Make Monte Carlo work harder
Re-run before every change
New edge, new allocation size, new volume: simulate again before you commit to the change.
Read the p10, not just the median
The median flatters you. Size your risk against the conservative percentile, not the optimistic one.
Test a lower edge to stay honest
Rerun with an edge below your estimate — if it still holds, your plan is genuinely robust.
« Seeing my real risk of ruin calmed me down. I lowered my allocations and sleep much better. »
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From a real, audited portfolio — updated live. Not marketing numbers.
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