Portfolio management
Edge is worthless if variance bankrupts you first. Portfolio management is the discipline that keeps you in the game long enough for your edge to pay off.
Your portfolio is your business capital
Set aside an amount you can afford to lose entirely, separate from living money. That's your portfolio. Every allocation is sized relative to it — never to how confident you feel or how much you lost last week.
Units and flat staking
A unit is a fixed fraction of your portfolio, typically 1–2%. Trading in units keeps your exposure consistent and lets you compare performance over time even as the portfolio grows or shrinks.
Flat staking — the same unit on every position — is simple, robust, and hard to beat for most investors.
The Kelly criterion
Kelly sizes each position in proportion to your edge and the returns, maximising long-term growth. Full Kelly is aggressive and swingy, so most pros use a fraction (a quarter to a half) to smooth variance.
Kelly only works if your probability estimates are honest — overestimate your edge and Kelly will over-position you into ruin. Yoseri computes fractional Kelly from its own edge estimates and caps risk server-side.
Surviving variance
Even a real edge comes with long losing streaks. Monte Carlo simulation — running thousands of randomised seasons — shows the range of outcomes you should expect, so a drawdown doesn't make you abandon a winning strategy.
Discipline beats inspiration. Size sensibly, track everything, and let the edge compound.
Theory is nice. Edges pay.
Yoseri does the pricing, edge and portfolio math for you — free to start, no card.