Tracking your edge
You cannot improve what you do not measure. Tracking turns a pile of results into proof of whether your edge is real — or just luck.
Why results alone lie to you
Over a small sample, a strategy with no edge still posts winning weeks, and a good one still posts losing ones. Judging yourself on the last result rewards luck and punishes good decisions.
A record is what lets you see past the noise to the truth.
Closing line value: the forward-looking grade
CLV measures whether you consistently beat the price at which the market closes. It signals a real edge long before the profits confirm it — the single most useful number a serious bettor tracks.
Sample size and confidence
Dozens of bets tell you almost nothing; hundreds start to. The bigger your sample, the more a positive result reflects skill rather than variance.
Decide in advance how many decisions you will judge a strategy over, and hold your verdict until you get there.
Keep a journal you will actually review
Log the price you took, your estimated probability, your stake and where the line closed. Reviewing it calmly and periodically is how patterns — and leaks — become visible. Yoseri tracks CLV and performance for every bet automatically.
Theory is nice. Edges pay.
Yoseri does the pricing, edge and bankroll math for you — free to start, no card.