EV Calculator
Expected value is the single number behind every good betting decision. Enter your own estimated win probability and the odds on offer to see whether the bet pays over the long run — before you know how this one turns out.
Positive EV — your probability beats the price. This is a value bet.
The method.
What it does
EV per $1 staked = your probability × decimal odds − 1. Multiply by your stake for the money figure. Positive means the bet pays on average; negative means it costs you, however good a single result might look.
Edge is where EV comes from
Your edge is your probability minus the odds' implied probability (1 ÷ decimal odds). Value exists only when your number is higher — without an edge, the EV is negative and the calculator says so.
Why +EV can still lose
EV is a long-run average, not a promise about the next bet. A +EV bet loses plenty of individual times — that's variance. Judge the decision by its EV, not by the last result, and repeat it across hundreds of bets.
Educational only — not betting advice. Calculators and simulations are illustrative; past results and simulated outcomes don’t guarantee future returns. Bet responsibly.