Expected value
Expected value is the single number that tells you whether a decision is worth making — long before you know how it turns out.
What expected value is
Expected value (EV) is the average result of a decision if you could repeat it many times. You weight each possible outcome by its probability, add them up, and get one number: what the decision is worth on average.
A positive EV means the decision pays over the long run; a negative EV means it costs you, however good a single result might look.
Why +EV can still lose (and that is fine)
EV is a long-run average, not a promise about the next bet. A +EV decision will lose plenty of individual times — that is variance.
What matters is that, repeated across hundreds of decisions, positive expected value reliably turns into profit. Judge the decision by its EV, not by the last result.
Turning EV into a habit
Every position should start with one question: is my estimated probability high enough, at this price, to make the EV positive? If you cannot answer yes, you do not have a bet — you have a gamble.
Yoseri computes EV for you on every market, so the comparison that matters is instant.
Theory is nice. Edges pay.
Yoseri does the pricing, edge and bankroll math for you — free to start, no card.