Arbitrage & hedging
Sometimes prices disagree enough to lock in a result whatever happens. Arbitrage and hedging turn that disagreement into guaranteed math — with eyes open to the catches.
Arbitrage: a guaranteed margin
An arbitrage exists when different brokers price the same market generously enough that backing every outcome returns a profit no matter what happens — the implied probabilities sum to under 100%.
You split your allocation across the outcomes in proportion to their returns so each return is identical. The gap below 100% is your locked-in margin.
Hedging: trading edge for certainty
Hedging means placing an opposing position to reduce or remove risk on a position you already hold — cashing out a live combined, or locking a futures ticket before the final. You give up some expected value for a known outcome.
It's a risk-management choice, not an edge: use it when certainty is worth more to you than the last sliver of EV.
Why the math is the easy part
Arbs are small, vanish in seconds as lines move, and brokers limit or close accounts that exploit them. Treat both as disciplined exercises, not guaranteed income — and always position responsibly.
Yoseri's arbitrage scanner finds these gaps across 100+ brokers in real time, with the exact allocations for each side.
Theory is nice. Edges pay.
Yoseri does the pricing, edge and portfolio math for you — free to start, no card.