Arbitrage Calculator
An arbitrage (or “sure position”) exists when two brokers price the same market generously enough that covering every outcome guarantees a profit. Enter the best returns for each outcome to see if one exists and how to size each leg.
Arbitrage — guaranteed profit whatever the result.
Track this automatically on your real positions
This runs one number, once. Yoseri applies the same math to every position you take — sizing, CLV and ROI computed for you, live on your dashboard. Free to start, no card.
The method.
What it does
It sums the implied probabilities (Σ 1/returns). Below 100% an arb exists: the calculator splits your total allocation so every outcome returns the same amount — a profit whatever happens.
How to use it
Find the best available price for each outcome across different brokers, enter them, and allocate exactly the amounts shown. The guaranteed return is identical on every result.
The catch
Arbs are small, short-lived, and brokers limit accounts that exploit them. Treat it as a discipline tool, not a get-rich scheme — and always position responsibly.
- Dᵢ— best decimal returns for outcome i
- Total— total amount you allocate
- Σ(1/Dᵢ)— sum of inverse returns across all outcomes
Profit% = (1 / Σ(1/Dᵢ) − 1) × 100 — the same locked return whichever outcome wins.
Two outcomes, each priced at 2.10 on different brokers.
- 1.Σ = 1/2.10 + 1/2.10 = 0.476 + 0.476 = 0.952
- 2.0.952 < 1 → arbitrage exists
- 3.Profit% = (1/0.952 − 1) × 100
- Returns move fast — a leg can shorten before you cover it, turning a lock into a loss.
- Brokers limit or ban accounts that arb consistently.
- Round each leg carefully; sloppy rounding erases a thin margin.
Educational only — not trading advice. Calculators and simulations are illustrative; past results and simulated outcomes don’t guarantee future returns. Position responsibly.
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