Hedge Calculator
You already hold a position and want to lock a result before it settles — cash out a live position, or secure a futures ticket before the final. This sizes the opposing position so your net is identical whichever side wins.
You lock in a guaranteed profit whichever side wins.
Track this automatically on your real positions
This runs one number, once. Yoseri applies the same math to every position you take — sizing, CLV and ROI computed for you, live on your dashboard. Free to start, no card.
The method.
What it does
Enter your original allocation and returns, plus the returns available on the other outcome. It returns the exact hedge allocation that equalises both sides, the locked return, and your guaranteed result.
Profit or just certainty
When the prices line up (the two together imply under 100%) the hedge locks a guaranteed profit, like an arb. More often it locks a small loss — the price you pay to remove all risk on a position.
When to hedge
Hedge when certainty is worth more to you than expected value: a big futures ticket near the end, or a live position that has swung your way. It trades upside for a known outcome — a risk decision, not an edge.
- S₀— your original allocation
- D₀— original decimal returns
- D_h— current returns on the opposite side
Locked result = S₀ × D₀ − (S₀ + Hedge). The earlier you hedge (higher D_h), the more you lock.
You hold 100 at 3.00; the opposite side is now 1.50.
- 1.Hedge = (100 × 3.00) / 1.50 = 200
- 2.Total staked = 100 + 200 = 300
- 3.Return either way = 100 × 3.00 = 300
- Hedging a positive-EV position gives up expected value — hedge to manage risk, not by reflex.
- Each hedge pays the margin again; frequent hedging bleeds returns.
- The math assumes the hedge price is still there — it can move against you.
Educational only — not trading advice. Calculators and simulations are illustrative; past results and simulated outcomes don’t guarantee future returns. Position responsibly.
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