— your estimated advantage over the offered price: the gap between an event's real probability and the implied probability baked into the price.
A price of 2.00 implies 50%. If you estimate the true probability at 55%, your edge is 5 points. Positive, you win over the long run; negative, the market chips away at you on every position.
Everything else — capital management, , tracking — exists only to protect and grow an edge that genuinely exists. Without edge, no system saves you.
Takeaway. Edge isn't guessed, it's measured. The best proof it exists: consistently beating the , your CLV. To go further: what having an edge really means.
Definition drawn from the Yoseri glossary. Educational outlet — nothing here is investment advice.
The Lexicon · Glossary
Find this term and its reference definition in the full Yoseri glossary.