A crushing favorite, a beloved team, a token “everyone's talking about”: when money floods in massively on one side, the price warps. It's not a conspiracy, it's mechanical — every new position pushes the favorite's price down and the other side's up.
The result: by the time you arrive, the story is already in the price. The favorite isn't just likely, it's overpriced for its probability. And symmetrically, the neglected side sometimes offers a price above its true chance. That's where the hides — not in the consensus.
Careful: the crowd isn't always wrong — often it's right about who wins. It's wrong about the price. Following the herd makes you pay full fare for information everyone already has.
Yoseri News is an educational outlet. Nothing in this article is investment advice.