It's one of the best-documented biases in sports markets: the favourite–longshot bias. On average, big favourites are slightly underpriced… and extreme longshots clearly overpriced.
Translation: if you systematically back very high returns — the "big hits" at 15, 30, 50 — you pay, on average, far more than the real probability of the event. The market overvalues small hopes of a jackpot, exactly like a lottery ticket.
This isn't a hunch: the effect is measured across decades of data, in every sport. The likely cause is the public's taste for the unlikely-but-spectacular scenario.
The angle. The dream of a big win has a price, and you're the one paying it. Before you chase the longshot at 40, ask yourself whether you're buying a real probability — or just the thrill of the jackpot.
Yoseri News is an educational outlet. Nothing in this article is investment advice.