Five reds in a row at roulette. Your brain screams that black is “due.” It isn't. The ball has no memory: on every spin, black has exactly the same probability as on the first. That's the gambler's fallacy.
In 1913, at , red came up 26 times in a row. Players bet fortunes on the “surely imminent” black, spin after spin. The casino cleaned up. The story is famous because the trap itself is universal.
You find it everywhere: “this team has lost four times, it's about to wake up,” “this token has dropped too far, it must bounce.” As long as events are independent, a past streak changes nothing about the next probability. Confusing the two is betting on a debt that chance doesn't owe.
Yoseri News is an educational outlet. Nothing in this article is investment advice.